@article{Merkel_Aars_Liston_2020, title={Modelling polar bear maternity den habitat in east Svalbard}, volume={39}, url={https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/3447}, DOI={10.33265/polar.v39.3447}, abstractNote={<p>We evaluated a novel tool that predicts possible maternity den habitat of the polar bear (<em>Ursus maritimus</em>) based on a physical snow transport model, a digital terrain model and weather data. We observed and compared den locations in three important denning areas in east Svalbard (Kongsøya,&nbsp;<em>n</em>&nbsp;= 288; Svenskøya,&nbsp;<em>n</em>&nbsp;= 86; Hopen,&nbsp;<em>n</em>&nbsp;= 115) with modelled snowdrift distributions for 24 years. Accounting for a likely position uncertainty of 100 m, 69% of all dens were located within year-specific modelled snowdrifts. These covered on average 1.8%, 2.1% and 24.7% of the three study islands, respectively. Our snowdrift model accurately predicted maternity den positions (<em>R</em><sup>2</sup>&nbsp;= 0.42, area under the receiving operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.85). A model based on slope and altitude, also predicted den positions reasonably well (<em>R</em><sup>2</sup>&nbsp;= 0.35, AUC = 0.88). Habitat maps identifying both current and future areas for maternity denning will become important in managing the Barents Sea population as well as other Arctic populations where changes in sea-ice conditions alter the accessibility to traditional denning areas.</p&gt;}, journal={Polar Research}, author={Merkel Benjamin and Aars Jon and Liston Glen E}, year={2020}, month={Mar.} }