Drivers, detection and impacts of rain-on-snow events on Banks Island, Canadian Arctic Archipelago: insights from remote sensing and Inuit Knowledge
Abstract
Current warming trends in polar regions have increased the frequency of rain-on-snow (ROS), which impacts snow microstructure and leads to the formation of ice crusts. We draw on Inuit Knowledge (IQ), alongside passive microwave satellite imagery and local measurements, to investigate both the drivers and the consequences of ROS events on foraging conditions for Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) on Banks Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Our approach improved the detection of large-scale ROS events, and the remote sensing detection algorithm combined with IK revealed a significant increasing trend over time in the area affected by ROS on Banks Island during the fall from 1987 to 2023. Satellite imagery and IQ both indicated that the occurrence of ROS is higher in coastal areas of Banks Island. We demonstrated that both the presence of atmospheric rivers and the reduction of local sea ice in the fall are associated with an increase in the occurrence and intensity of ROS on Banks Island. Our article highlights how the complementarity among IQ, remote sensing, climate reanalysis models and local observations from weather stations can advance our understanding of ROS events and their impacts on wildlife. Identifying drivers of ROS is key to anticipating future effects on wildlife and the communities that depend on them. The approaches presented in this article show promising avenues for addressing these complex questions.
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